Deterministic and probabilistic ship pitch prediction using a multi-predictor integration model based on hybrid data preprocessing,reinforcement learning and improved QRNN

The deterministic and probabilistic prediction of ship motion is important for safe navigation and stable real-time operational control of ships at sea. However, the volatility and randomness of ship motion, the non-adaptive nature of single predictors and the poor coverage of quantile regression pose serious challenges to uncertainty prediction, making research in this field limited. In this paper, a multi-predictor integration model based on hybrid data preprocessing, reinforcement learning and improved quantile regression neural network (QRNN) is proposed to explore the deterministic and probabilistic prediction of ship pitch motion. To validate the performance of the proposed multi-predictor integrated prediction model, an experimental study is conducted with three sets of actual ship longitudinal motions during sea trials in the South China Sea. The experimental results indicate that the root mean square errors (RMSEs) of the proposed model of deterministic prediction are 0.0254°, 0.0359°, and 0.0188°, respectively. Taking series #2 as an example, the prediction interval coverage probabilities (PICPs) of the proposed model of probability predictions at 90%, 95%, and 99% confidence levels (CLs) are 0.9400, 0.9800, and 1.0000, respectively. This study signifies that the proposed model can provide trusted deterministic predictions and can effectively quantify the uncertainty of ship pitch motion, which has the potential to provide practical support for ship early warning systems.     

基于人脸卡口数据的行人共现关系图谱构建

随着人脸识别技术的不断进步以及人脸卡口的大范围且密集的部署, 本文针对团伙犯罪案件侦察这一应用场景, 对人脸卡口数据进行深入挖掘, 探究其中行人间的共现关系, 获取所关注的嫌疑人的现实社交网络, 锁定团伙其余人员. 经过实验比对和论证, 本文使用Chinese Whispers聚类算法对行人节点进行识别, 通过Faiss加速邻接边的构建, 加速图的初始化步骤, 解决其聚类效率低下的问题. 在此基础上, 使用共现频次和Apriori算法中的置信度挖掘行人间的共现关系, 构建行人共现关系图谱.     

Visually deficient working conditions and reduced work performance in office workers: Is it mediated by visual discomfort?

IntroductionThe main purpose of this cross-sectional study was to investigate whether visual discomfort acts as a mediating factor between perceived visual ergonomic working conditions and self-rated visual performance among office workers who carry out administrative tasks and computer-based work at the Swedish Tax Agency.MethodsA questionnaire was sent to 94 office workers addressing: 1) perceived visual quality of the visual display units; 2) prevalence of eye symptoms; and 3) self-rated visual performance. Eighty-six persons (54 women (63%), 31 men (36%), and 1 of unspecified sex) answered the questionnaire. Multiple regression analysis investigated the association between visual ergonomic working conditions and visual performance, both with and without visual discomfort as a mediator.ResultsThe group mean of the Indexed survey questions indicated a reasonably good quality of visual ergonomic working conditions, a relative absence of eye symptoms, and acceptable self-rated visual performance. Results from multiple regression analysis showed a significant association between perceived visual ergonomic working conditions and self-rated visual performance (r² = 0.30, β = 0.327, p < 0.01). When visual discomfort was used as a mediator, the association between perceived visual ergonomic working conditions and self-rated visual performance remained the same (r² = 0.32, β = 0.315, p < 0.01).DiscussionIt was remarkable to discover that self-rated visual performance was independent of visual discomfort. Possible explanations include exposure factors not included in the current study, such as dry air and sensory irritation in the eyes, psychosocial stress, time spent performing near work activities, or time exposed to visually deficient working conditions.Relevance to industryThe strong connection between satisfaction with visual ergonomic working conditions and productivity in this study has implications for workplace profitability and staff satisfaction. If productivity is enhanced by better visual ergonomic working conditions, then managers of workplaces may be able to improve work outcomes by optimizing the physical work environment.     

基于Bootstrap方法的密封寿命可靠性评估

针对高可靠、长寿命密封件在小样本试验下的可靠性寿命评估需求,提出一种基于虚拟增广样本和Bootstrap方法的密封寿命小样本数据可靠性评估方法。并以轴用阶梯圈为例,进行寿命可靠性评估。首先通过虚拟增广法将轴用阶梯圈台架寿命试验数据样本数增广至10个,使得样本数满足Bootstrap方法的适用条件;然后再利用Bootstrap方法得到轴用阶梯圈的寿命可靠性评估结果。     

Consumer confidence in the safety of milk and infant milk formula in China

A series of food safety incidents related to domestically produced dairy in China harmed consumer confidence and caused a dramatic decrease in dairy consumption from 2008 to 2010. Compared with previous studies that mainly assessed consumer confidence in food or dairy in general, this study focused on 2 specific dairy products, milk and infant milk formula (IMF). Based on data from 934 Chinese consumers, confidence in the safety of milk and IMF was measured by using a multi-item scale with 2 dimensions—optimism and pessimism. We found that Chinese consumers were optimistic about the safety of milk and IMF but, at the same time, were concerned about the risks related to milk and IMF. Chinese consumers have less confidence in IMF than in milk. Structural equation modeling indicated that consumer trust in manufacturers and third parties in the dairy supply chain and confidence in other foods, such as meat and fish, can foster consumer confidence in the safety of milk and IMF, while the extent of recall of the melamine infant formula incident in 2008 and trait worry exert negative effects. In addition, consumers with more children or less family income are likely to be more confident in domestically produced IMF. These insights into consumer confidence and its determinants can assist dairy supply chains and regulatory institutions in formulating effective risk communication strategies to strengthen consumer confidence.     

U.S. regulatory perspectives on the back end of the fuel cycle: EUROSAFE 2013 proceeding

For the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the reactor licensees it regulates, there are a number of contemporary issues associated with the back end of the fuel cycle including, the agency's revision to its “Waste Confidence” decision and the path-forward for high-level waste disposal. Additionally, the 2012 Blue Ribbon Commission on America's Nuclear Future recommendations, the future of reprocessing, consolidated interim spent fuel storage, and maintaining technical competence within the NRC in challenging budgetary conditions are addressed. I conclude that there is confidence in the feasibility of safe storage of spent nuclear fuel following the licensed operational life of a reactor and any change in high-level waste policy will require Congressional action to amend the Nuclear Waste Policy Act.     

The relationship between particulate air pollution and emergency hospital visits for hypertension in Beijing, China

Background

A number of epidemiological studies have examined the adverse effect of air pollution on mortality and morbidity. Also, several studies have investigated the associations between air pollution and specific-cause diseases including arrhythmia, myocardial infarction, and heart failure. However, little is known about the relationship between air pollution and the onset of hypertension.

Objective

To explore the risk effect of particulate matter air pollution on the emergency hospital visits (EHVs) for hypertension in Beijing, China.

Methods

We gathered data on daily EHVs for hypertension, fine particulate matter less than 2.5 μm in aerodynamic diameter (PM_2.5), particulate matter less than 10 μm in aerodynamic diameter (PM₁₀), sulfur dioxide, and nitrogen dioxide in Beijing, China during 2007. A time-stratified case-crossover design with distributed lag model was used to evaluate associations between ambient air pollutants and hypertension. Daily mean temperature and relative humidity were controlled in all models.

Results

There were 1,491 EHVs for hypertension during the study period. In single pollutant models, an increase in 10 μg/m³ in PM_2.5 and PM₁₀ was associated with EHVs for hypertension with odds ratios (overall effect of five days) of 1.084 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.028, 1.139) and 1.060% (95% CI: 1.020, 1.101), respectively.

Conclusion

Elevated levels of ambient particulate matters are associated with an increase in EHVs for hypertension in Beijing, China.     

建筑结构概率可靠度的区间估计

介绍了正态分布强度参数未知、正态分布应力和强度参数均未知，同时考虑4个随机变量、取可靠度指标β为正态分布等几种常见情况下可靠度置信区间的确定方法，以达到在理论上补充和完善可靠度理论的目的。     

土木工程专业研究生创新思维和科研自信的培养方法

新时代"国家战略、"新工科"教育改革行动和"工程教育的国际认证"为传统工科的研究生培养提出了新的要求、新的标准。研究生招生规模的不断扩大和新工科培养目标的提升已成为我国研究生培养的主要矛盾，亟需教育工作者思考如何培养"适应未来的工程师"。分析目前土木工程专业研究生培养存在的主要问题，从培养理念、教学方法、导师指导模式、学术例会组织模式等方面，探讨新工科理念土木工程专业研究生培养的具体方法。     

Sub-micrometer particulate air pollution and cardiovascular mortality in Beijing, China

Background

While the link between particulate matter and cardiovascular mortality is well established, it is not fully investigated and understood which properties of the aerosol might be responsible for the health effects, especially in polluted mega-city areas.

Objectives

Our goal was to explore the association between daily cardiovascular mortality and different particle metrics in the sub-micrometer range in Beijing, China.

Methods

We obtained daily counts of cause-specific cardiovascular deaths in the Beijing urban area for the period March 2004 to August 2005. Concurrently, continuous measurements of particle number size distributions were performed. Particle number concentrations (NC) between 0.003 μm and 0.8 μm were converted to particle mass and surface area concentrations assuming spherical particles. Semi-parametric Poisson regression models adjusting for trend, seasonality, day of the week, and meteorology were used to estimate immediate, delayed and cumulative particle effects. Additionally, effect modification by air mass origin was investigated.

Results

We observed associations between daily cardiovascular mortality and particle NC for a 2-days delay. Moreover, nearly all particle metrics showed 2-days delayed associations with ischemic heart disease mortality. The strongest association was found for particle NC in the size range 0.03-0.1 μm (7.1% increase in daily mortality with a 95%-confidence interval of 2.9%-11.5%, per an increase of 6250 particles/cm³). Results for surface and mass concentrations with a lag of two days indicated effect modification by air mass origin, whereas effects of particle NC were not modified.

Conclusions

Results show an elevated risk of cardiovascular mortality in Beijing from short-term exposure to particulate air pollution in the sub-micrometer range. Results also indicate that locally produced smaller particles and regionally transported particles may exhibit different effects in Beijing.